Once you’ve got to grips with the plethora of football betting options out there and are aware of football betting terms, you are ready to attack the bookmakers. But, this is never a good idea if you don’t have enough knowledge about the betting options.
Not all of us can be professional punters, but to avoid a total ‘gamble’ when betting on football we should at least take the bookies on with a little know how to help us out. Here are some of the basic things we can look at before deciding on a football bet:
Check the odds
Unlike with horse racing, the favourites will win a particularly high percentage of football matches. Each game, from a betting point of view at least, is a three horse race.
There can only be a home win, away win or draw and so the odds on a likely winner are never going to be massive.
That said, by the bookies making a team favourite to win they have essentially done the first piece of work for you. There is no deceit here; a team will be favourites usually because they genuinely have the best chance of winning the game so looking at favourites, particularly at home, is often a good place to start for a novice football punter.
Each bookmaker will have their own odds as usual, but comparing them on Oddschecker.com will give you an idea of which teams people think will do well.
Check the stats
A myriad of statistics are available on football games and we never stop learning which are the best to use. An obvious starting point is the league table – is Team A in a higher position than Team B?
However the league table isn’t totally reliable until the end of the season when every team has played each other home and away, by which time the game won’t even be taking place! Use it as a loose guide only.
Another useful stat is to check, say for the last 6 games, how many points the home side has earned at home versus how many their opposition has earned away from home.
If there is quite a large difference, it may be that the home side will be appreciably stronger on the day. Around 45% of all games are won by the home side, with the other 55% being shared between away winners and draws.
Checking the transfer value using the Transfermarkt website can give a loose idea of how valuable a squad is. Given the above stat about home wins though, remember to give the away side only 70-80% of their value as teams will usually be weaker away from home.
Head to head record
Many websites give you a chance to check one team’s record against another and this can be a very useful tool. Sometimes it will show that, generally speaking, a certain team may have a fabulous record against their latest opposition and it may be that they typically have a stronger squad.
On the other hand, if a certain side hasn’t beaten their opposition for a long time you may employ the law of averages – it may well be that the team you choose is finally due a win against their current foes.
Teams who are aiming for a title, a European place or maybe fighting relegation will naturally have the required motivation and are always likely to play up to their expected level. This gives us a better chance of predicting the outcome of a game.
Conclusion
Many, many factors play a part in picking a football bet and it’s often hard not to simply back the team you support or only use your instinct.
Bookmakers though rely on what they call ‘mug punters’ betting blind and losing their money more often than not, so do go armed with some info into your battle with the bookies and give yourself the best chance of a return.